Definition

• A real and significant—not minor, speculative, or trivial—risk of initiating nonconsensual physical force against another person or their property.
• A substantial risk is not just any risk. Living life involves risks of all types. Ordinary risks that we all consent to merely by living life do not qualify as substantial risks. For example, simply breathing the air in the presence of others subjects a person to the ordinary risk of catching a cold. This does not qualify as a “substantial” risk.
• When evaluating risks, we must consider both the likelihood of the risk materializing and the magnitude of the harm that will occur if it does. Our tolerance for risks that could result in the death of thousands of people should be very low. The same is true for smaller risks that are highly likely to materialize. As such, what qualifies as a “substantial risk” is sometimes a grey area on a continuum where reasonable minds equally committed to the Legal Principle in good faith disagree. In such a case, the local community must select which reasonable interpretation to adopt as the law in their local community..
• Creating a substantial risk of initiating nonconsensual physical force is one of the nine forms of aggressing (a breach of the Legal Principle).

Local community determines the threshold

• What exactly constitutes a substantial risk is a subjective grey-area, and must be decided by the local community. The local community must select which reasonable interpretation to adopt. They are not permitted to adopt an unreasonable interpretation, as this would result in aggressing. If a local community did select an unreasonable interpretation of what constitutes a “substantial risk,” this is where federalism or a higher court would invalidate the local community’s law as constituting an aggression. Local communities only select from options when reasonable minds equally committed to the 3LP in good faith disagree.

Examples of Continuum issues

• What level of impairment from drugs or alcohol creates a substantial risk for drivers on roads?
• What amount of dangerous materials can be stored in a populated area?
• Whether someone in possession of a firearm, such as a violent felon, mentally incompetent, or technically incompetent, presents a substantial risk to others. Weapons capable of more significant harm to greater numbers of people at further distances require a different analysis than ordinary handguns.